Here’s my electoral map for tomorrow’s election party. I’ve kept it pretty conservative – there are twelve battleground states that are important or close that I haven’t called worth 164 electoral votes. Watch out for these states:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Iowa
- Maine
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Virginia
- Wisconsin
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Clinton has 210 and Trump has 164. Less than 24 hours to go.
Here are the three factors that I’m looking out for:
- Latinx/Hispanic voter turnout – Historically, turnout for this demographic group has been low, even throughout Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections. If there is a record-breaking turnout of Latinx/Hispanic voters, expect Florida to swing Hillary, and maybe even see Arizona flip.
- Working class, uneducated white voters in the rust belt – Watch out for Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
- “Shy Trump voters” – There’s an electoral theory where voters supporting a divisive candidate choose not to reveal their preference in polls, and then suddenly show up on election day to vote en masse. Vip, Steve, JWebb and I discuss this in our Election Special episode of the Shooting the Shit with Angelo Gio Mateo podcast. (ARCHIVED)